India Begs US Not To Leave Afghanistan


Bharat Verma

Islamabad aims to create a caliphate with the help of the Islamic regimes running from Central Asia to West Asia and Southeast Asia. India stands in the way. Beijing desires to unravel India into multiple parts based on the pre-British model as it cannot digest the challenge to its supremacy offered in Asia by a liberal union of multi-religious and multi-ethnic States.

While China and Pakistan have joined hands against India and bide their time for the American forces to leave, New Delhi has appealed to Washington not to exit from Afghanistan

With the American declaration of an exit from Afghanistan, Beijing and Islamabad are upbeat. This leaves India in the lurch as it is ill prepared to face the threat posed by Islamic fundamentalists and the Chinese Communists argues Bharat Verma.

The creeping invasion by authoritarian regimes will engulf Asia by 2020 as democracies continue to retreat. India is unprepared and unwilling to safeguard the Asian democratic space.

The growing clout of totalitarian regimes coupled with non-State actors is set to shrink the democratic space in Asia. If the onslaught is not reversed by the end of the next decade, Islamic fundamentalist regimes, Communist dictatorships, military juntas and non-State actors will redraw the international boundaries and largely govern Asia.

The squeeze on the democratic space in India will increase once the American forces begin to exit Afghanistan in July 2011. Islamic fundamentalists with the assistance of the sympathetic Pakistan army will take over Afghanistan and Pakistan. This Taliban stronghold will operate on a ‘hub and spoke’ principle to expand influence and territory. To begin with, India will lose $1.5 billion (about Rs 6,900 crore) worth of investment in Afghanistan, as it is unwilling to defend it.

Islamic fundamentalism will sweep into Central Asia once the American wall holding the spread disappears from Afghanistan. Gradually, the resource rich area will come under the spell of the dark forces. Russia will feel threatened. Americans and the International Security Assistance Force are in many ways fighting Russia’s war.

Unlike New Delhi, Moscow is always willing to fight its way out!

Islamabad aims to create a caliphate with the help of the Islamic regimes running from Central Asia to West Asia and Southeast Asia. India stands in the way. Beijing desires to unravel India into multiple parts based on the pre-British model as it cannot digest the challenge to its supremacy offered in Asia by a liberal union of multi-religious and multi-ethnic States.

The simple truth is that Indian democratic values contradict and thereby pose a threat to the authoritarian philosophy of both, the Communists in Beijing, and the Islamic fundamentalists in Islamabad. Similarly, many regimes in Islamic West Asia feel uncomfortable with India’s ability to generate unprecedented soft power. Regression to medieval times helps keep these autocratic regimes in the saddle.

The all-pervading Indian soft power, therefore, poses a serious challenge. Hence, Pakistan is supported by the petro-dollars dished out on a Wahabbi checkbook to neutralise the threat posed by liberal India.

It is obvious that if the Indian model wins, autocratic regimes like China and Pakistan lose.

Primarily, there have been no terrorist attacks on India after Mumbai 26/11 on two counts. First, the raging civil war within has kept Pakistan preoccupied. Second, the intervention of the American forces has forced diversion of the Pakistan army and its non-State actors’s resources away from India. The stated exit of the Western forces beginning July 2010 from the Af-Pak region will render India extremely vulnerable.

The truth is that American forces in many ways are fighting India’s war too. However, New Delhi’s expectation that they will continue to fight such a war without India chipping is being naive.

While China and Pakistan have joined hands against India and bide their time for the American forces to leave, New Delhi has appealed to Washington not to exit from Afghanistan, but is unprepared and unwilling to assist. The Catch-22 is that neither the West led by America can win without Indian help nor can India prevail without a concrete alliance with the West.

New Delhi’s strategic incoherence continues to encourage Beijing and Islamabad’s designs of destabilising the Union. Militarily, India remains underprepared due to the huge equipment shortages on land, sea and air, created by the ministry of defence over the last two decades.

Shirking its primary responsibility of equipping the military leaves it ill equipped to cope with the increasing intensity of the threat once the Western forces retreat.

The stalemate in Afghanistan predominantly occurs on two counts. First, superior technology in a guerrilla war where motivational level of the adversary is very high, unless combined with adequate boots on the ground cannot deliver victory.

The West does not have a large reservoir of manpower to mitigate the situation. Thus, the under-manned war for past nine years has produced difficult-to-reverse battle fatigue despite the most modern technology on display.

The result is the resurgent Taliban and Al Qaeda in the region. To win, a fair share of the soldiery needs to be drawn from Asian stock with equally high motivation and equipped with Western technology to surmount the challenge posed by Islamic fundamentalists.

Second, to defend Afghanistan, the war machinery should focus on Pakistan. However, the American strategy in Afghanistan is similar to the Indian fortress mentality.

Despite multiple attacks and infiltrations by the terrorists, New Delhi continues to fortify itself internally in futile attempts to repulse the attacks. Washington’s approach is similar in Kabul for the past nine years.

The Americans and the allied forces keep defending against the irregular guerrilla forces launched in to Afghanistan from Pakistan, clandestinely trained by the Pakistan army and its Inter Services Intelligence. The ghost forces from Pakistan, when attacked, disappear almost unscathed. They reappear in Kabul at will.

Washington and New Delhi cannot win since both refuse to face the fact that Pakistan is the problem.

To lend stability to Afghanistan, the threat from Pakistan covertly backed by China must be neutralised. Similarly to secure India, the joint threat from Pakistan and China needs to be resolved. In both, Pakistan is the common factor.

Beijing’s Communists back the Islamic fundamentalists in Islamabad to expel the American influence and subdue the Indians, even as Pakistan draws oxygen for sustenance from the economic bailouts from the West.

Logic dictates that to defend Kabul, with the intention of expanding influence of democracies in Asia, the focus must shift to Islamabad. However, an exit by the American forces set for July 2011 from Afghanistan will herald the process of colouring Asia in a dark hue.

With the declaration of the exit time frame, Beijing and Islamabad are once again upbeat.

This leaves India in lurch, as it is ill prepared to face the threat jointly posed by Islamic fundamentalists that includes the Pakistan army and the ISI, and the Chinese Communists. Both support the Maoists in Nepal and the non-State actors including the Maoists in India.

New Delhi therefore faces a simultaneous three-dimensional threat, — the external war on two fronts, worsening internal front aided by external actors, and lack of governance.

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First time in 19 years flag not hoisted at Lal Chowk


Indiatimes

SRINAGAR: The national flag was not hoisted by security forces in Lal Chowk, the nerve centre of Srinagar, on the Republic Day today for the first time in 19 years.

The usual hustle and bustle was not there in the heart of the city as people preferred to remain indoors in view of strike call given by separatists as well as tight security measures taken by the authorities.

The tricolour used to be unfurled on the clock tower, popularly known here as “Ghantaghar” in Lal Chowk on the Republic Day and Independence Day since 1991.

The first time the flag was hoisted at the clock tower was in 1991 when then BJP President Murli Manohar Joshi did it amidst rocket attacks by militants.

No official reason was cited for not hoisting the national flag in Lal Chowk, which recently saw a 22-hour terrorist siege.

The authorities last evening eased security restrictions in the city to lessen inconvenience to the people. Police and paramilitary forces remained deployed in strength but checking of vehicles and frisking of pedestrians was restricted to a few places.

“We have not lowered the guard but several steps have been taken to avoid unnecessary harassment of the people. Instead of random checking at every half a km in the city, the vehicles were searched at a few places particularly at the entry points,” officials said yesterday.

However, tight security arrangements were made today in view of terror threat to the R-day function.

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Kashmiri people Smear Dirt and naked Indian Soldiers for raping Girl


Kashmiri People caught two Indian Soldiers who where trying to rape a 17 years old Kashmiri Muslims Girl. angry Kashmiri People naked them, shaved their heads, Smear Dirt in their faces and then paraded them in the village. thousands of incident of sexual harassment and rape are taken place in last few years by Indian army of Kashmiri women but this time they learned a good lesson. you can watch below Video.

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India’s challenge


Indian Army chief General Deepak Kapoor inspects the guard of honour during the Army Day parade in New Delhi. –Reuters Photo/B Mathur

The statement by Indian army chief Gen Deepak Kapoor regarding his army’s capacity to fight a two-front war upset a lot of people in Pakistan. Both Pakistan’s army chief and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee rebutted such superfluous claims.

Pakistan’s military high command did not mince its words in dissuading its Indian counterparts from giving any thought to ‘military adventurism’, and highlighted the severe implications of this and of the Pakistan military’s capacity to respond.

Such exchanges represent the heightened tension between the two traditional rivals. For many political pundits the year 2010 does not bode well for bilateral ties. The tide of peace and amity has been reversed even though people thought that the peace process, started during Musharraf’s reign, was ‘irreversible’. At that time, one of the major reasons for hope on both sides was that a possible deal could be negotiated between an elected government in India and a military dictator in Pakistan, who, it was assumed, could carry his institution along in reaching out to New Delhi. Now things are back to square one with hawks on both sides intensifying tensions.

Kapoor’s statement and its response from Rawalpindi is not the last time that such an exchange will take place. Needless to say, such exchanges do not bode well for peace in the region.

The Indian army chief had spoken of a capability that India desires but does not possess at the moment. Taking on two neighbours militarily and ensuring a ceasefire on its conditions is New Delhi’s dream. But it does not have the capacity to translate this into reality. In fact, India does not even have the capability to successfully try out ‘cold start’, its strategy to allow the Indian military to strike specific targets inside Pakistan and pull back without incurring a high cost. The basic assumption is that if India targets terrorist training camps or headquarters in Pakistan and pulls out without holding Pakistan’s territory or annihilating its military, Rawalpindi will have no excuse to deploy nuclear weapons.

Theoretically, such an adventure is possible because it is based on another calculation that the Indian army will not waste time in regrouping but would already be regrouped to carry out a strike. Official sources believe that activating ‘cold start’ could mean Pakistan deploying nuclear weapons at forward positions or keeping them ready for use. Such a situation would result in India deploying its arsenal as well, making the atmosphere highly charged.

Thus far, the Indian strategy is not in place. It requires complete inter-services harmony and would essentially be a joint services operation which could only succeed if well simulated. So far, there is no indication that India has this capacity. There are internal problems in establishing a new force structure. The establishment of this would indicate that headway is being made in bringing necessary changes to the organisational structure.

So, should Pakistan just laugh off Kapoor’s statement? It would be wiser to understand the nuances of the statement which are more important than the actual content of what he said. It basically indicates the shifting of plates in terms of civil-military relations in India. This is not to suggest that the Indian military is getting ready for an internal coup or that it could take over politics or even wage a war on its own.

However, Kapoor’s statement is one of the many symbols of the growing significance of India’s military in the country’s security and foreign policy paradigm, particularly as far as Pakistan, China and the US are concerned. It is no longer the military of Nehru’s days that sat silently waiting for orders from Delhi as it saw the Chinese army creeping into areas India considered part of its territory.

The modern-day Indian military has access to the media and has managed to build a partnership with it to get its message across when it is in need of public pressure on the political government regarding a particular issue or policy. Furthermore, the military’s overall significance in military security decision-making has increased for a number of reasons.

First, the current lot of Indian politicians is comparatively less skilled to deal with security issues than their predecessors and so tend to seek advice from military officers on security issues. Second, given India’s desire to become a global player and its acquisition of modern technology to achieve this objective, the significance of the armed forces has increased. Third, India’s security partnership with the US has bolstered the Indian military’s significance. Finally, (as in Pakistan) senior commanders who retire from the service find jobs in think tanks. This has allowed them to influence the national security discourse in the country.

For instance, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry recently published a report on national security and terrorism proposing extreme measures. Thus, senior retired military officers and hawkish civilian experts drive the thinking of businessmen and traders who are key to peace in the region. This is indeed unfortunate and depicts a reduced capacity of the civilian sector in India to take on or oppose the military’s perspective.

From Pakistan’s perspective the important thing is that Indian politicians might find it difficult to go against their military’s opinion in case there is a crisis in the future. Not to forget the fact that both the Indian and Pakistani military have changed qualitatively as far as their class structure goes.

Greater indigenisation of the officer cadre and troops has meant larger numbers from the lower, lower middle and middle classes. One of the distinguishing features of these classes is their sympathy for socio-cultural traditions that have a significant religious flavor. Consequently, the men in uniform might view matters of war and peace differently.

Such factors as mentioned above are difficult to quantify but have a greater bearing on military planning and decision-making than what one would imagine. Under the circumstances, any misadventure or misperception could cost heavily.

These are two neighbors who do not know or understand each other and this makes an accidental conflict or some other dangerous miscalculation possible. Perhaps it is time that the two rivals began to understand each other.

The writer is an independent strategic and political analyst.
ayesha.ibd@gmail.com

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RAW organizes seminar with aim to target Baluchistan


—‘Selected’ participants invited to discuss issue of Autonomy of Baluchis and Kashmiris n show set to be held mysteriously at Delhi’s India International Centre

From Christina Palmer

NEW DELHI—While a leading media group of Pakistan has signed an agreement with an Indian media group to promote peace between Pakistan and India with the title Aman Ki Aasha( the hope for peace), the Indian Intelligence Agency Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) is organizing a charade seminar at New Delhi’s India International Centre from January 10th to January 12th, 2009, reveal the findings of The Daily Mail.

These findings indicate that the seminar, titled ‘India-Pakistan Conference-A Road map towards peace” is being hosted by a RAW-run organization Focus on Global South, in a rather mysterious manner as a very few people have been informed about it and there has been no publicity about the event made by the organizers and even a very few people from amongst the Delhi-based local and foreign journalists have been informed and invited to the said seminar. The Investigations indicate further that even the official website of the India International Centre (IIC) does not indicate that the said seminar is amongst the event, listed to place on the said dates at IIC.

The Daily Mail’s investigations reveal that though a reasonable number of participants have been invited from Pakistan to take part in the seminar but one particular segment of the seminar that targets Baluchistan province of Pakistan, titled “ Issue of Autonomy: Kashmir and Baluchistan”, is epically drafted by RAW to draw a comparison between the freedom movement in Indian Occupied Kashmir and the RAW sponsored separatists movements in Baluchistan province of Pakistan where RAW is super-actively engaged for years. For this part of the seminar, The Daily Mail’s findings indicate, no senior journalist or intellectual from Pakistan has been selected to speak but merely one nationalist journalist from Baluchistan who runs a separatism nationalists Online newspaper from Baluchistan and got his Journalism degrees from Asian College of Journalism, Chennai India and is known for toeing the RAW lines regarding Baluchistan has been invited from the Media side. The Baluchistani journalist, Siraj Malik has graduated from Asian College of Journalism at Chennai India while Chennai is known as the hub of RAW-run think tanks and it is an established fact that the RAW people keep nurturing the foreigners, linked to Indian education or research organizations.

The Daily Mail findings indicate that the overall Pakistanis, invited for the said RAW arranged seminar include former Information Minister (PPP) Ms. Sherry Rehman, former Law Minister (PPP) Iqbal Haider, Human Rights activists Aasma Jehangir, Baluchistani journalist Malik Siraj Akbar, Senator Hasil Khan Bazinjo, some Farooque Tarique of some Pakistan Labour Party, some economist Akbar Zaidi, defence analyst Ayesha Siddiqua, and women rights’ activists and theatre artist, Madeeha Gauhar, all known for having a very soft corner for India and having a very pro-India mindset. However the speakers for the main target and rather the nucleus of the seminar that would bee focusing on Baluchistan, the “selected” speakers from Pakistan include, Asma Jenagir, Malik Siraj Akbar and Senator Hasil Khan Bizenjo. While all the participants of the overall seminar from the Indian side are very well known for their staunch anti-Pakistan mindsets.

The Daily Mail’s finding indicate that through the particular segment of the seminar that relates to Baluchistan, RAW plans to draw parallels between the freedom movement in Indian Occupied Kashmir and the RAW funded separatists’ drives in Baluchistan.n however, surprisingly the organizers have neither invited anyone from among the officials of Pakistan government or Delhi-based Pak diplomats nor have they opted to invite anyone from amongst the Baluchi tribes that confront the militant and rebellion Sardars like Bugtis Marris etc.

The Daily Mail’s findings also reveal that the said scheduled seminar is not the first of its kind to promote the separatism in Baluchistan as in past, many foreign intelligence organizations have been indulging in such exercises. These finding indicate that RAW, in connivance with the British and Israeli intelligence agencies, has been organizing many such forums to benefit the separatist movements in Baluchistan. According to these findings, different foreign agencies including India’s RAW have remained actively involved in the formation of different militant and separatist outfits like Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA), Baluchistan Rights Movement (BRM) etc. these foreign agencies have been continuously using such outfits in Baluchistan and have been patronizing them. The Daily Mail’s findings indicate that apart from the funding and provision of arms and ammunition to the militants in Baluchistan, these foreign intelligence agencies have been organizing media and intellectual support programmers for these organizations.

These findings reveal that in one of such endeavors,on 27th June 2006, when Pakistani security forces were gaining immense success in restoring peace and disarming the militants in Baluchistan and hundreds of mercenaries started surrendering to the government authorities, a UK based , so called think tank Foreign Policy Centre (FPC) organizes a highly confusing seminar on Baluchistan, titeled ‘Baluchistan at the crossroads’. Surprisingly, the FPC organized the said seminar with open collaboration of Baluchistan Rights Movement (BRM), which is merely an extension of BLA, an outfit that has been banned and declared as a terror organization, not only by Pakistan government but also by the government of England while the FPC organized the seminar at no where else but right at the committee room number 16 of the House of Commons. To add to it, and make the credentials of the said seminar even dubious, the organizers neither invited anyone from among the officials of Pakistan government or UK-based Pak diplomats nor did they bother to invite anyone from amongst the Baluchi tribes that confront the militant and rebellion Sardars like Bugtis, Marris etc, just the way it is happening at New Delhi in this latest episode. However there was a comprehensive representation from the three Militant tribes and leaders and workers of BLA and BRM. It is learnt that that a Board member of FPC, a British politician and a fomer member of British Parliament, Stephen Twigg was the main spirit behind the holding of this seminar.

The UK Seminar. The Daily Mail’s investigations indicate that in the said seminar, chaired by Hugh Barnes of FPC Mehran Baluch, an active member of BLA and a senior activist of Baluchistan Rights Movement, Mr. Sanaullah Baloch, whose, close association with warlords of Baluchistan and millatnt outfits like BLA are known to everyone, Dr. Naseer Dashti another associate of Bugti and Marri and BLA, Fredric Grare of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace etc expressed their views and analysis about situation in Baluchistan. All the participants of the said seminar blamed Pakistan government for usurping the human rights in Baluchistan and treating the people of Baluchistan like animals. They also declared Baluchistan to be a separate state and accused Pakistan of illegally occupying it. They one-sidedly accused Pakistan government and people of Punjab in particular for usurping all rights of people of Baluchistan and portrayed militant Sardars like Bugti and Marri as heroes of Baluchis people. Fredric Grare blamed Pakistani media being in control in Pakistan Army while member of European Parliament from Poland Ryszrd Czarnecki went on to claim that Baluchistan was not a part of Pakistan and a “Punjabi Army” was ruling them he also went on to say that Pakistan came into existence through a restrictive voting. So in other words, the seminar was merely an attempt to malign Pakistan, Pakistan government and Pakistan Army and media as well. All attempts were made to lay the fundaments for the separation of Baluchistan from Pakistan and to encourage the separatists and militant activists in Baluchistan while the seminar concluded with pledge from the chair to hold more sessions on similar debate in near future. A similar conclusion is expected when the Delhi seminar’s episode regarding Baluchistan would end as the Chairman of the said segment former Indian Judge Rajendra Sacchar is expected to come up with similar conclusions, as desired by RAW and the government at New Delhi.

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Tough Kayani Warns Proponents Of ‘Adventurism’


Pakistan can fire missiles at only 10 minutes’ notice on all Indian cities: General. Kayani

The Chief of Army Staff, Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, said on Friday that peace and stability in South Asia (and beyond) was the logical and fundamental principle underlining the security paradigm of Pakistan. Addressing senior officers at the General Headquarters here, Gen Kayani said that the army was alive to the full spectrum of threat that continued to exist both in conventional and unconventional domains.

He said that Pakistan Army stood committed and prepared to respond to any existing, potential or emerging threat. An army supported by 170 million people, with faith in Allah, is a formidable force to be reckoned with. “Proponents of conventional application of military forces, in a nuclear overhang, are chartering an adventurous and dangerous path, the consequences of which could be both unintended and uncontrollable,” he said.

He said Pakistan was not oblivious to the unprecedented acquisition of sophisticated military hardware, synergised with an offensive military doctrine. However, as a responsible nuclear state, Pakistan army would contribute to strategic stability and strategic restraint as per the stated policy of the government.

He said peace and stability in South Asia was the logical and fundamental principle underlining the security calculus of Pakistan.
The recent statement by Indian Army Chief Gen Kapoor about the two-front war strategy on which India was at present working, targeting China and Pakistan, had sent shock-waves among those aspiring for peace and stability in the region.

Commenting on Gen Kayani’s observation, a defense analyst observed that India had to be reminded from time to time that Pakistan was a nuclear power, fully capable of deterring any external aggression.

He pointed out that Pakistan could fire missiles at only 10 minutes’ notice on all Indian cities.

Pakistan is the fourth country in the world possessing cruise missiles which are considered to be capable of accurately hitting targets in India.

The maximum range of Indian missiles is 1500 kilometers while Pakistan’s Shaheen has a range of 3500 kilometers.

DAWN

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Gen. Kapoor’s statement outlandish says Gen. Tariq


Chairman Joint Chief of Staff Committee General Tariq Majid on Saturday rubbished the Indian media report which states that the Indian Armed Forces are preparing to fight China and Pakistan.

“Leave alone China, General Deepak Kapoor knows very well what the Indian Armed Forces can not and what the Pakistan Armed Forces can pull off militarily,” said General Tariq Majid.

He was responding to a question on the Indian Army Chief’s jingoistic pronouncement of Indian military preparations to fight China and Pakistan simultaneously.

General Majid said he doubted the veracity of the Indian media report attributed to General Kapoor, saying that “he (Kapoor) could not be so outlandish in strategic postulations to fix India on a self destruct mechanism.”

General Majid further said that if the news report is correct, then the statements of Indian Army Chief are uncalled for and only “display a lack of strategic acumen.”

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